We take a look at what lies ahead for all Test sides and who remains in contention of reaching the 2025 World Test Championship Final.
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The competition at the summit of the ICC World Test Championship standings is intense, with a mere 15 percent difference among the top five teams.
India and Australia continue to occupy the leading positions in the standings, and the prospect of a rematch of the unforgettable 2023 final at The Oval is very much alive.
However, teams such as Sri Lanka, New Zealand, and South Africa are still in the race for a prestigious top two position, which would secure them a spot in next year’s exclusive Test at Lord’s.
First – India – 62.82% of possible points
Remaining series: New Zealand (home, one Test), Australia (away, five Tests)
Optimal finishing percentage: 74.56%
The two-time runners-up of the World Test Championship appeared to be in a strong position for a spot in next year’s final. However, consecutive defeats at home to New Zealand have opened the door for rival teams.
Although Rohit Sharma’s squad retains a slight advantage at the top of the standings, a loss in the third Test against the Black Caps would necessitate that they secure at least four victories in their upcoming matches in Australia next month to guarantee their qualification.
Regardless of the outcome in Mumbai against New Zealand, the five-match series against Australia later this year will be crucial for India and their aspirations of reaching a third consecutive World Test Championship final.
Second – Australia – 62.50% of possible points
Remaining series: India (home, five Tests), Sri Lanka (away, two Tests)
Optimal finishing percentage: 76.32%
The current World Test Championship titleholders, Australia, are positioned favorably for a second consecutive final appearance. However, Pat Cummins’ team will likely need to secure victories in at least four of their remaining seven Tests to successfully defend the championship they claimed in 2023.
One advantage Australia holds over India is the opportunity to play two Tests in Sri Lanka next year. This scenario allows for the possibility of a 2-2 draw with Rohit Sharma’s team, which could keep them in contention for a final berth prior to their Asian tour.
Nevertheless, Australia must first address their recent struggles at home against India, as they aim to reclaim the Border-Gavaskar Trophy for the first time in over a decade.
Third – Sri Lanka – 55.56% of possible points
Remaining Series: South Africa (away, two Tests), Australia (home, two Tests)
Optimal Finish: 69.23%
A remarkable triumph over England in the third Test has opened the door for Sri Lanka to contend for a place in the World Test Championship Final, provided they secure three victories from their remaining four Tests.
However, the challenge ahead is formidable, as they are set to face two Tests in South Africa at the end of November, followed by a two-match series at home against the current champions, Australia, in 2025.
Should Sri Lanka manage to secure a win in South Africa, it could set the stage for an exhilarating conclusion on home ground, with the top two positions potentially still up for grabs in the final series of the cycle.
Fourth – New Zealand – 50% of possible points
Remaining series: India (away, one Test), England (home, three Tests)
Best possible finish: 64.29%
New Zealand’s historic victory in their first series in India has instilled a sense of optimism regarding their chances of securing a second World Test Championship title. However, they face significant challenges ahead if they aim to secure a position among the top two in the standings.
To reach the final, the Black Caps will likely need to achieve victories in all four of their remaining Tests. This necessitates completing series sweeps against both India—having already won two consecutive Tests there—and England at home.
While this goal is not unattainable, it will undoubtedly be a formidable task for the Kiwis.
Fifth – South Africa – 47.62% of possible points
Remaining fixtures: Bangladesh (away, one Test), Sri Lanka (home, two Tests), Pakistan (home, two Tests)
Optimal finishing percentage: 69.44%
A victory in the subcontinent after more than a decade has instilled hope in South Africa for qualifying for next year’s World Test Championship final. However, they will need to replicate this achievement in the upcoming second Test against Bangladesh and secure victories in three out of four matches on home turf later this year.
The two-match home series against Sri Lanka, scheduled for late November, will be critical for the Proteas. A clean sweep in this series would significantly enhance their chances of reaching the final while simultaneously extinguishing any aspirations the Sri Lankan team may have for contention.
South Africa poses a legitimate challenge to the leading teams in the standings, particularly with four additional home matches remaining. Nevertheless, achieving a consecutive victory in Bangladesh will be essential for their overall prospects.
Sixth – England – 40.79% of possible points
Remaining series: New Zealand (away, three Tests)
Optimal conclusion: 48.86%
England’s consecutive defeats in Pakistan have resulted in their elimination from the race for a place in next year’s final. Ben Stokes’ team now faces the challenge of three remaining Tests in this cycle.
They will be heading to New Zealand for a three-match series against the Black Caps, aiming to conclude the cycle positively with an away series victory.
Seventh – Pakistan – 33.33% of possible points
Remaining Series: South Africa (away, two Tests), West Indies (home, two Tests)
Optimal Finish: 52.38%
Under the guidance of new coach Jason Gillespie, Pakistan has achieved consecutive Test victories. However, they are currently not in a position to qualify for the final, as six teams are ranked above them in the standings.
Although Pakistan has the potential to win their remaining four Tests and achieve a percentage of 52.38 percent, it is improbable that this would be sufficient to secure a top-two finish in the standings.
Pakistan is set to travel to New Zealand for a three-match series against the Black Caps, aiming to conclude the cycle positively with an away series victory.
