The choice between Ahmed al-Sharaa and his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, could serve as a pivotal sign of the path Syria’s future will follow.
On Sunday morning, a 42-year-old man with a beard, dressed in a simple green military uniform, entered the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus and addressed a modest gathering, representing the Syrian nation, the region, and the global community.
Against the backdrop of the mosque’s ornate decorations, Ahmed al-Sharaa proclaimed the downfall of the Assad regime as “a triumph for the Islamic nation” and urged the audience to engage in contemplation and prayer.
“I departed from this land over two decades ago, and my heart has yearned for this moment,” he stated. “Please, my brothers, sit in silence and remember God Almighty.”
For the majority of the past twenty years, the individual who effectively governed much of Syria has refrained from using his birth name. Ahmed al-Sharaa, who was raised in a progressive family in a well-off neighborhood of Damascus and pursued a medical education, had seemingly vanished. In his stead emerged Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a pseudonym crafted in accordance with the tradition of jihadist militants seeking new identities that evoke a sense of historic Muslim grandeur while providing a layer of anonymity. It was Jolani who engaged in combat against U.S. forces in Iraq alongside jihadist insurgents from 2003 to 2006, subsequently spending five years in detention camps. Jolani also returned to Syria in 2011, playing significant roles in the operations of both the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaida.
Jolani assumed leadership of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and, since 2017, has exerted his authority over 2 million individuals in the northwestern Syrian region of Idlib. Last month, it was Jolani who initiated a rebel coalition, primarily led by HTS, which culminated in a vigorous 12-day campaign that concluded in Damascus on Sunday.
The pressing question now is which individual will govern Syria: Jolani, who is classified as a terrorist by the U.S., U.K., and other nations, with a $10 million bounty on his head, or Sharaa, who has made efforts in recent years to convey that his organization will refrain from attacking the West?
There is a lack of agreement regarding the answer. Numerous analysts suggest that Sharaa’s choice to enter Damascus and abandon his nom de guerre is merely one of several indicators that points to a genuine shift from jihadi extremism towards a more moderate stance.
In Aleppo, the first city overtaken by the rebel coalition during its offensive last month, HTS extended amnesties to former soldiers of the regime, conducted door-to-door visits to reassure Christian residents of their safety, and communicated to the Kurdish population that “diversity is a strength of which we are proud.” Reports indicate that Sharaa has played a pivotal role in diplomatic initiatives aimed at winning the support of Ismaili Shia leaders, thereby securing vital towns for the rebels without incurring losses.
“From our observations, he appears to be a genuinely transformed individual. He has undergone a significant journey and has developed a pragmatic theology in Idlib,” stated Shiraz Maher, an expert in extremist Islam at King’s College London.
This transformation is not abrupt. Even in his previous role, Sharaa had opposed both al-Qaida and IS, actively combating their militants and rigorously purging his own group of individuals suspected of divided loyalties. Although he recently expressed no regret for celebrating al-Qaida’s 2001 attack on the United States, there is widespread belief that Syria’s new leader has sincerely distanced himself from the hardliners’ vision of an unbounded global campaign against Western powers and other members of the so-called Crusade-Zionist alliance. Some experts note that the use of Jolani as a nom de guerre not only indicated the HTS leader’s, or at least his family’s, origins from the Golan Heights but also reflected a strong personal commitment to ending Israel’s occupation of that region. The decision to abandon this name conveys a significant message, they argue.
It is also evident that Sharaa’s priorities are local, with a focus on national interests: the overall welfare of Syria and its battered, traumatized, and suffering populace.
The manner in which this welfare is optimally achieved may signal a departure for Sharaa from his meticulously crafted persona as a reformed individual. The adoption of a simple uniform not only represents a shift from the typical attire of a militant Islamist fighter but also signifies a rejection of the ceremonial robes, gold embellishments, and medals that frequently denote rank in the region. Despite occasional concessions prompted by public protests, numerous dissidents have faced severe repercussions under HTS governance in Idlib.
“The obstacles will be substantial, and he does possess an authoritarian inclination… Is he establishing a secular state? I doubt it. My prediction is that it will resemble a diluted version of the Taliban in terms of his potential implementations,” remarked Maher.
Other experts contend that certain high-ranking officials within HTS, along with the group’s most capable fighters, including seasoned extremists from Central Asia, remain devoted to a “jihadi core ideology.” Some analysts argue that any apparent moderation is merely a superficial transformation concealing radical aspirations, both locally and globally, in the long run, and they advise that neither Western nations nor regional powers should lower their vigilance.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a specialist at the Washington-based Foundation for the Defence of Democracy, highlighted what he perceived as a “jihadist flag” positioned alongside the flag of the Syrian revolution behind Sharaa during a recent CNN interview.
“He has thus far articulated all the appropriate sentiments… and I genuinely hope he embodies the persona he claims to represent,” Abdul-Hussain stated.
“However, the nation is in disarray. There is no functioning economy, no financial resources. Crime and poverty are rampant, and millions of refugees are eager to return. Presently, there may be a sense of contentment, but inevitably, reality will set in, and my concern is that he may revert to his Islamic roots.”
