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The United States has called on China to dissuade Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil trade, following heightened tensions after U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025. The move underscores the delicate balance of economic and geopolitical interests in the Middle East, with potential disruptions threatening global energy markets.
Rubio’s Appeal to Beijing
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking on Fox News on June 22, 2025, urged China to leverage its influence over Iran to keep the Strait open. “I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio said. He warned that closing the Strait would be “economic suicide” for Iran, given its reliance on oil exports, and hinted at U.S. military options to counter such a move. Rubio’s remarks followed reports from Iran’s Press TV that Iran’s parliament approved a plan to close the Strait, though the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council.
The Strait’s Critical Role
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, carries about 20 million barrels of oil daily—roughly 20% of global consumption. Major producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran rely on it to export crude, primarily to Asia. China, Iran’s largest oil buyer, imported over 1.8 million barrels per day from Iran last month, per Vortexa data. Other Asian economies, including India, Japan, and South Korea, also depend heavily on Hormuz for energy supplies. A closure could spike oil prices, disrupt supply chains, and fuel global inflation, impacting everything from fuel costs to food prices.
Iran’s High-Stakes Gamble
Iran’s threat to block the Strait comes as retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. President Donald Trump claimed the attacks “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, but the IAEA reported limited damage, and Iran downplayed the impact. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned of “everlasting consequences,” while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s aide called for closing the Strait to Western ships. However, energy analyst Vandana Hari argues Iran has “little to gain and too much to lose,” as a closure would alienate Gulf neighbors and China, its key market, while harming its own oil exports.
Market Jitters and U.S. Military Posture
Oil prices surged after the U.S. strikes, with Brent crude hitting $81.40 per barrel on June 23 before settling at $78, up 1.4%. Analysts warn a prolonged Strait closure could push prices above $100, per Goldman Sachs estimates. Saul Kavonic of MST Financial noted the U.S. has bolstered its regional defenses, including the 5th Fleet in Bahrain, to counter Iranian moves, but escalation risks remain high. The U.S. Navy’s ability to reopen the Strait is seen as likely, though disruptions could last weeks, per Rapidan Energy’s Bob McNally.
China’s Reluctant Position
China, heavily reliant on Hormuz for 45% of its oil imports, faces a dilemma. Beijing’s state-run Global Times criticized U.S. involvement as destabilizing, and Ambassador Fu Cong called for a ceasefire at the UN. Posts on X suggest China warned Iran to keep the Strait open, citing its importance as a “vital trade corridor.” Yet, China’s close ties with Iran and its own oil needs make it wary of alienating Tehran. Analysts like Shweta Singh note China could use economic leverage to restrain Iran, given Beijing’s role as Iran’s top trading partner.
Why Iran Might Hesitate
Closing the Strait would provoke a U.S. military response and risk turning Gulf states, like Saudi Arabia and Oman, into adversaries. Iran’s own oil exports, critical for its economy, pass through Hormuz, and a closure could backfire. Historical precedent supports caution: during the 1980s Iran-Iraq “Tanker War,” Iran targeted ships but never fully blocked the Strait. Experts like Michael Rubin call the move “suicidal,” arguing it would cripple Iran’s economy faster than its foes’.
Global Economic Stakes
A Strait closure would hit Asian economies hardest. India, sourcing 20% of its oil via Hormuz, could see GDP losses of 0.5% per $10 oil price hike, per expert Robinder Sachdev. Japan and South Korea, reliant on the Strait for 60–75% of their crude, face similar risks. Even a brief disruption could drive Brent to $110, per Goldman Sachs, with long-term effects on global growth. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited pipeline capacity to bypass Hormuz, offering only 2.6 million barrels per day, far short of the Strait’s 20 million.
The Path Ahead
Iran’s final decision hinges on its Supreme National Security Council, with rhetoric suggesting a range of retaliatory options short of a full closure, such as targeted attacks or cyberattacks. The U.S. and its allies are poised to counter any move, but the risk of miscalculation looms. China’s diplomatic role could be pivotal, though its public ceasefire calls indicate reluctance to take a firm stance. As tensions simmer, global markets brace for potential shocks.
Disclaimer: This article is based on reported information and does not endorse unverified claims.
Sources: BBC News, CNBC, The Guardian, Reuters, India Today, Times of India
