With Trump hosting Pakistan’s Asim Munir, Modi underscores India’s commitment to bilateral resolutions post-Operation Sindoor. Can diplomacy avert a new South Asian crisis?
June 18, 2025
Table of Contents
The Core Incident
On June 18, 2025, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with former U.S. President Donald Trump, reiterating India’s firm opposition to third-party mediation in India-Pakistan relations following Operation Sindoor, India’s May 7 military strikes targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The 35-minute call, confirmed by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, came hours before Trump hosted Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for a private lunch in Washington, a move that stirred controversy in India. Modi emphasized that the May 10 ceasefire, which ended four days of cross-border hostilities, was a bilateral agreement between Indian and Pakistani military channels, rejecting claims of U.S. involvement.
Underlying Causes and Evolution
The diplomatic tension traces back to the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 people, mostly tourists. India blamed Pakistan-backed militants, citing Asim Munir’s April 16 speech invoking the “two-nation theory” and anti-Hindu rhetoric as provocation. Operation Sindoor followed, with India launching 19 BrahMos missiles to strike 11 Pakistani airbases, destroying six aircraft and four radars, according to posts on X. Pakistan’s retaliatory “Operation Bunyan-al-Marsoos” targeted 26 Indian sites with drones and missiles, but India’s S-400 defenses limited damage.
The ceasefire, requested by Pakistan on May 10, was negotiated directly, but Trump and U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, claimed mediation credit, citing U.S. trade leverage. India refuted this, with Misri clarifying no trade deal or mediation was discussed. Tensions escalated when Munir’s U.S. visit—initially reported as an invitation to the 250th U.S. Army anniversary parade on June 14 but later confirmed as Trump’s private lunch—drew Indian ire, given Munir’s alleged role in stoking terrorism.
Stakeholder Reactions
Indian Government: Modi reaffirmed that “India has never accepted third-party mediation and will not accept such mediation,” emphasizing bilateral resolutions. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar underscored India’s anti-terrorism resolve, while India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty and downgraded Pakistan’s diplomatic presence post-Pahalgam.
Pakistan: Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar acknowledged the ceasefire but denied Pakistan’s role in Pahalgam. Munir, recently promoted to Field Marshal, faces domestic unrest, with Imran Khan’s PTI party protesting his U.S. visit, reflecting distrust in Pakistan’s military.
U.S.: Trump’s hosting of Munir, coupled with General Michael Kurilla’s praise of Pakistan as a “phenomenal partner” in counterterrorism, has sparked Indian concerns about U.S. motives. Trump’s repeated mediation offers on Kashmir, despite India’s refusals, suggest a balancing act in South Asia.
Indian Opposition: Congress leader Jairam Ramesh called Munir’s visit a “diplomatic setback,” urging Modi to convene Parliament. The BJP dismissed Congress’s earlier claims about Munir’s parade invitation as “fake news,” citing White House clarifications.
Public Sentiment: On X, Indian users expressed anger over Trump’s engagement with Munir, with @TimesAlgebraIND lauding Operation Sindoor and @Indian_Analyzer highlighting Pakistan’s admission of losses. Pakistani diaspora protests in the U.S. signal anti-Munir sentiment, while global X posts urge de-escalation amid nuclear fears.
Experts: Analyst Michael Kugelman noted global support for India’s retaliation but warned against actions bolstering Munir domestically. Former J&K DGP SP Vaid alleged Pakistan’s SSG commandos posed as terrorists, escalating communal tensions.
Short- and Long-Term Impacts
Short-Term: The call has strained India-U.S. ties, with Modi signaling skepticism of Trump’s intentions. Pakistan’s $9 billion defense budget hike for 2025-26 reflects post-Sindoor security concerns, while India’s diplomatic outreach to 25 countries aims to isolate Pakistan. Economically, cross-border trade, including Pakistan’s $1.023 billion IMF tranche, faces disruptions. Socially, anti-Pakistan sentiment in India has surged, fueling calls for stronger measures.
Long-Term: U.S. engagement with Munir risks “hyphenating” India and Pakistan in its South Asia policy, potentially alienating New Delhi. India may deepen ties with France and Japan, who backed Operation Sindoor unequivocally. For Pakistan, Munir’s U.S. visit may strengthen his domestic position but risks further Indian retaliation if terrorism persists. Regionally, the Israel-Iran conflict, with Pakistan’s border closures in Balochistan, adds complexity to South Asia’s geopolitics.
Global Comparisons
India’s stance against mediation echoes China’s rejection of external involvement in Taiwan disputes, reflecting a preference for bilateral control among nuclear powers. Unlike Turkey, which accepted UN mediation in Syria, India’s approach leverages its regional dominance. Pakistan’s U.S. ties resemble Egypt’s, balancing counterterrorism cooperation with domestic risks, though Pakistan’s nuclear status and India rivalry raise higher stakes.
What’s Next? Solutions and Predictions
Modi’s call may deter U.S. mediation attempts, but Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy could stoke tensions, particularly if he pushes Kashmir talks. Pakistan faces internal challenges, with unconfirmed coup rumors against Munir. A fresh terror attack could unravel the ceasefire, prompting India to escalate beyond Sindoor’s scope, as Modi hinted at “stronger retaliation.”
Solutions include bolstering India-Pakistan military hotlines to avoid miscalculations and UN-led anti-terrorism frameworks, though India’s bilateral preference limits multilateral roles. Analysts predict short-term stability if Pakistan curbs militancy, but long-term peace requires dismantling terror networks. A broader conflict looms if tensions reignite, with China and Russia likely to mediate diplomatically to prevent nuclear escalation.
Disclaimer
This article reflects events as understood on June 18, 2025. Details may evolve, and readers should verify with primary sources.
Sources
- Business Standard, June 18, 2025
- India Today, June 12-18, 2025
- Outlook India, June 18, 2025
- Deccan Herald, June 12, 2025
- X posts, June 8-18, 2025
