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The US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025, have sent shockwaves through the Middle East’s shipping industry, placing it on high alert. With Iran threatening retaliation and Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeting US-linked vessels, the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil trade—faces heightened risks. Greece, the world’s largest oil-tanker nation, has urged its shipowners to avoid the Persian Gulf, while naval forces warn of attacks on commercial and naval ships. Here’s a detailed look at the crisis, its impact on shipping, and the potential consequences for global trade.
US Strikes and Iran’s Retaliation Threat
Operation Midnight Hammer
On June 21, 2025, the US launched Operation Midnight Hammer, striking Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with B-2 bombers and bunker-buster bombs. President Donald Trump claimed the strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, though the IAEA reported limited damage, particularly at Fordow. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed retaliation, rejecting diplomacy until Tehran responds, raising fears of attacks on commercial vessels or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Houthi Threats Escalate
Yemen’s Houthi rebels, aligned with Iran, issued fresh threats against US commercial and naval ships on June 22, 2025, breaking a May ceasefire aimed at curbing their attacks. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) warned that US-linked ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden face a “high risk” of attack, urging rerouting. The EU’s naval force raised its threat level to “severe” for US- and Israel-linked vessels, noting all merchant ships could be targeted in the future.
Strait of Hormuz: A Global Oil Chokepoint
Strategic Importance
The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is the world’s most critical oil transit point, handling 20.9 million barrels per day in 2023—20% of global petroleum consumption. It also supports container trade through ports like Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan, key hubs for Dubai’s freight networks in the Persian Gulf, South Asia, and East Africa. A closure or disruption could spike oil prices, raise shipping costs, and cause supply delays, impacting global markets.
Iran’s Capabilities and Past Actions
Iran has long threatened to close the Strait, a tactic last seen during the 1984–1988 Iran-Iraq “Tanker War.” Tehran’s arsenal of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones, and naval mines, combined with its IRGC Navy’s speedboats, gives it the means to disrupt shipping. Past incidents, like the 2019 Fujairah ship attacks and the 2024 seizure of a container ship near Hormuz, show Iran’s willingness to target maritime traffic amid tensions. However, Israeli strikes on Iran’s missile capabilities since June 13 may limit its ability to fully blockade the Strait.
Shipping Industry Response
Greece’s Warning
Greece, with the world’s largest oil-tanker fleet, issued a circular on June 22, 2025, advising Greek-flagged and Greek-owned ships to “reassess passage” through the Strait of Hormuz and wait in safe ports until tensions ease. The Greek shipping ministry cited fears of Iran closing the Strait and urged vessels transiting the region to adopt the highest security measures and stay far from Iranian waters. Greek government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis emphasized the need for caution. Three Greek tanker companies are assessing the situation, with one considering continued transits and another planning to avoid the region.
Industry Risk Tolerance
Despite warnings, some shipowners may continue transiting Hormuz due to its economic importance. Tanker earnings have surged 90% since Israel’s airstrikes began on June 13, with VLCC rates to China up 154% week-over-week and Middle East-Japan routes up 148%. Higher freight rates and crew wages incentivize risk-taking, as seen historically in conflict zones. A.P. Moller–Maersk A/S continues to transit Hormuz but is prepared to reroute if risks escalate.
Naval and Maritime Advisories
The JMIC reported on June 22 that the Strait remains open, with some US-linked vessels successfully transiting, but urged companies to review contingency plans for rerouting and emergency response. The EU’s naval force and the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) noted increased electronic interference near Iran’s Port of Bandar Abbas, impacting navigation systems. Shipping group Bimco warned Iran could use anti-ship missiles or drones, though sea mines are less likely due to environmental and diplomatic risks.
Economic and Security Implications
Surging Freight Rates
The conflict has driven up shipping costs. Freight rates from Shanghai to Jebel Ali surged 55% month-over-month to $2,761 per forty-foot equivalent unit, while tanker insurance rates for Hormuz transits rose over 60%. These costs, combined with higher fuel consumption from faster sailing through high-risk areas, strain global supply chains.
Risk of Strait Closure
Iran’s parliament endorsed closing the Strait on June 22, though the decision rests with its top security body. Such a move would disrupt 34% of seaborne oil trade, triggering a global energy crisis. However, Iran’s reliance on oil exports and fear of alienating allies like China, a major importer, may deter a full closure. A partial disruption, like targeted attacks or electronic interference, remains more likely.
Houthi Impact
The Houthis’ renewed attacks, following over 100 Red Sea incidents since 2023, have already diverted most container trade around Africa, increasing transit times and costs. Their threats against US ships could extend disruptions to the Gulf of Aden, further complicating regional shipping.
Global and Regional Reactions
US and Allies
The US has bolstered its naval presence in the region, with the 5th Fleet patrolling Hormuz alongside allies. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended the strikes as necessary to halt Iran’s nuclear program but urged China to dissuade Iran from closing the Strait. Gulf states, aligned with the US, face economic pressure to support intervention if oil exports are disrupted, though they may seek alternative export routes across the Arabian Peninsula.
Greece and Other Shipowners
Greece’s advisory reflects its outsized role in oil transport, but its influence may be limited if shipowners prioritize profits over safety. Qatar also advised caution for its LNG vessels, signaling broader industry concern. Some operators, like Hapag-Lloyd, see no immediate threat to Hormuz transits but acknowledge the situation could change rapidly.
What’s Next?
Iran’s Retaliation Scenarios
Iran could target US-linked ships with missiles, drones, or IRGC speedboats, as warned by Bimco, or increase electronic interference, as seen near Bandar Abbas. A full Strait closure is less likely due to global backlash, but selective disruptions could achieve similar economic impact with less risk. Iran’s weakened missile capabilities, hit by Israeli strikes, may limit its scope, but its naval assets remain a threat.
Shipping Industry Decisions
Shipowners face a dilemma: avoid Hormuz and lose revenue or transit with heightened security and higher rates. The industry’s risk tolerance will determine whether the Strait sees a de facto slowdown, as seen in the Red Sea. Rerouting around Africa is not an option for Persian Gulf trade, making Hormuz unavoidable.
Global Economic Impact
A prolonged disruption could push oil prices higher, with Brent crude already up 4% since Iran’s closure threat. Global inflation, supply chain delays, and energy shortages could follow, particularly if Gulf exports are curtailed. The conflict’s escalation, with no diplomatic resolution in sight, heightens these risks.
The US strikes on Iran have placed Middle East shipping on high alert, with the Strait of Hormuz at the center of global concerns. Greece’s warning, Houthi threats, and naval advisories underscore the risks to oil and container trade, while surging freight rates reflect the industry’s precarious balance of profit and safety. Iran’s potential retaliation, though constrained, could disrupt a fifth of the world’s oil flow, with far-reaching economic consequences. As shipowners weigh their options and naval forces patrol, the maritime industry’s decisions will shape the conflict’s impact on global trade.
What do you think about the shipping industry’s response to this crisis? Will heightened security measures suffice, or could the Strait of Hormuz face significant disruptions?
