As the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, Pakistan seals its border with Iran, fearing security threats and a refugee surge in volatile Balochistan. Here’s how the Middle East crisis is shaking Pakistan’s western frontier.
June 18, 2025
The Core Incident
The Israel-Iran conflict, now in its sixth day as of June 18, 2025, has erupted into a dangerous exchange of airstrikes and missile barrages, with Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran retaliating against Israeli cities. This escalation, sparked by Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” on June 12, has killed over 600 in Iran and at least 23 in Israel, per reports from Iran’s health ministry and Israeli authorities. Pakistan, sharing a 905km border with Iran, has reacted by closing five key border crossings in Balochistan, citing security concerns. This move, affecting trade and travel, reflects Islamabad’s growing alarm over potential spillover, including a refugee influx and heightened separatist activity in its restive province.
Underlying Causes and Evolution
The Israel-Iran conflict stems from decades of rivalry, with Israel viewing Iran’s nuclear program as a direct threat and Iran accusing Israel of regional aggression backed by the U.S. Tensions boiled over when Israel launched preemptive strikes on June 12, targeting Iran’s Natanz and Fordow nuclear sites, missile facilities, and senior military figures, including IRGC commanders. Iran’s response, dubbed “Operation True Promise III,” involved hypersonic missiles hitting Tel Aviv and Haifa, escalating the conflict further.
Pakistan’s concerns are rooted in its complex relationship with Iran. In January 2024, the two nations exchanged missile strikes over separatist groups—Pakistan targeted Baloch insurgents in Iran, while Iran hit Jaish al-Adl in Balochistan. Though they quickly de-escalated, the incident exposed the porous border’s vulnerabilities. Now, Israel’s claim of “aerial superiority” over Tehran has raised fears in Islamabad that Israeli influence could extend closer to Pakistan’s border, threatening its security status quo. Pakistan’s closure of crossings like Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan on June 15 aims to curb potential refugee flows and separatist movements, particularly by groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which operate on both sides of the border.
Stakeholder Reactions
Pakistan’s Government: Pakistan condemned Israel’s strikes as “blatant provocations” violating Iran’s sovereignty, with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar urging global action to halt the aggression. Dar also signaled Pakistan’s willingness to mediate, noting Iran’s openness to talks if Israel ceases attacks. However, analysts like Umer Karim suggest Pakistan’s diplomatic capacity is limited due to its efforts to mend ties with the U.S., Israel’s key ally.
International Response: The UN and G7 have called for restraint, but efforts are stalled. China condemned Israel’s actions, while the U.S., under President Trump, demands Iran abandon its nuclear ambitions, deploying additional jets to the region. The International Atomic Energy Agency warned of potential radioactive risks from damaged nuclear sites.
Public Sentiment: In Pakistan, posts on X reflect anxiety over border closures disrupting trade and fears of sectarian tensions, given Pakistan’s 15% Shia population. In Iran, civilians are fleeing Tehran; in Israel, air raid sirens dominate daily life. Global sentiment on X is polarized, with some backing Israel’s preemption and others decrying its aggression.
Experts: Analysts like Abdul Basit highlight Pakistan’s fear of a refugee influx akin to Afghanistan’s, with Balochistan’s porous border posing a risk for separatist crossings. Security expert Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud warns that supporting Iran militarily could ignite sectarian violence in Pakistan, given its Sunni majority and Shia minority.
Short- and Long-Term Impacts
Short-Term: The border closures have halted pedestrian movement, affecting daily wage laborers and small traders in Balochistan who rely on cross-border commerce, such as fruit and oil trade. Over 500 Pakistani pilgrims and students have returned via Taftan, but trade worth $2.8 billion annually, including Iran’s 100-megawatt electricity supply to Balochistan, is at risk. Economically, global oil prices have spiked 7%, hitting $90 per barrel, threatening inflation. Socially, fear of violence is rising in Balochistan, where separatist groups could exploit the chaos. Politically, Pakistan’s government faces pressure to balance solidarity with Iran against U.S. ties.
Long-Term: The conflict could destabilize Balochistan further, home to the strategic Gwadar port and the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. A prolonged war risks fueling Baloch separatist movements, potentially drawing in Iran-backed groups or even Israeli interference, as Pakistan fears Israel’s aerial reach. Sectarian tensions could flare, undermining Pakistan’s domestic stability. Globally, a disrupted Strait of Hormuz could tank economies, with oil prices potentially hitting $100 per barrel. Pakistan’s diplomatic tightrope—supporting Iran while avoiding U.S. backlash—may strain its foreign relations.
Global Comparisons
Other nations with border security concerns offer context. Turkey, bordering Syria, has faced similar refugee and militant spillover from the Syrian civil war, often sealing borders to control influxes while balancing NATO ties. India, sharing a tense border with Pakistan, maintains heavy military presence to deter cross-border militancy, similar to Pakistan’s current strategy. However, Pakistan’s situation is unique due to Balochistan’s dual role as a resource hub and insurgency hotspot, compounded by its non-recognition of Israel and sectarian dynamics.
What’s Next? Solutions and Predictions
The conflict shows no immediate end, with Israel’s ongoing strikes and Iran’s vowed retaliation. Pakistan’s border closures may persist, risking economic strain in Balochistan and potential unrest if shortages worsen. A refugee influx remains a looming threat, especially if ground operations escalate, though analysts like Asif Durrani deem this unlikely without U.S. or Israeli boots on the ground.
Proposed solutions include UN-mediated talks to freeze Iran’s nuclear program for sanctions relief, though past failures make success doubtful. Pakistan’s offer to mediate may gain traction if backed by the U.S., but its limited influence and U.S.-Israel ties complicate this. Experts predict that if the Strait of Hormuz closes, global economic fallout could be severe. For Pakistan, maintaining border security while avoiding entanglement in the conflict will be critical. Worst-case scenarios involve Baloch separatists exploiting the chaos or sectarian violence erupting, threatening Pakistan’s stability.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects events as understood on June 18, 2025. Details may evolve, and readers should verify with primary sources.
Sources
- Al Jazeera, June 2025
- Arab News, June 2025
- The New York Times, June 2025
- Institute for the Study of War, June 2025
- X posts, June 12-18, 2025
