As PM Modi embarks on a three-nation tour, his visit to Canada marks a pivotal moment for India-Canada relations.
Modi’s G7 Visit
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attendance at the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, from June 15 to 17, 2025, hosted by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, marks a pivotal moment for India-Canada relations. Strained by allegations surrounding the 2023 assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar and differing stances on the Khalistan movement, bilateral ties have been at a low point. This analysis explores the potential for a reset, the unresolved issues, economic and geopolitical opportunities, and the challenges ahead, drawing on official statements and expert perspectives.
Context of Strained Relations
India-Canada ties deteriorated significantly after Canada’s former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Indian government agents of orchestrating Nijjar’s killing in Surrey, British Columbia, in June 2023. Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and prominent Khalistan advocate, was shot outside a Sikh temple, prompting Canada to allege a broader Indian campaign of intimidation, extortion, and violence against Sikh activists. India dismissed the claims as “absurd” and “preposterous,” accusing Canada of harboring Khalistani extremists who threaten Indian security. The dispute led to tit-for-tat diplomat expulsions in 2023 and 2024, reducing diplomatic presence to a third.
Canada’s Sikh community, the largest outside India with about 800,000 members, includes a fringe Khalistan movement, banned in India but active in Canada. India has long demanded Ottawa crack down on separatist activities, citing threats to Indian diplomats and community centers. Conversely, Canada’s RCMP has linked Indian officials to Nijjar’s murder, alleging “highest-level” involvement, though no evidence directly implicates Modi. Four Indian nationals face charges in the case, with trials pending.
The G7 Invitation: A Diplomatic Opening
Modi’s invitation to the G7, extended by Carney on June 6, 2025, signals a potential thaw. India, not a G7 member, has been a regular guest since 2019, reflecting its status as the world’s most populous nation and fourth-largest economy. Carney emphasized India’s centrality to global supply chains and its role in discussions on energy security, digital transition, and critical minerals. Modi accepted promptly, stating, “As vibrant democracies bound by deep people-to-people ties, India and Canada will work together with renewed vigor, guided by mutual respect and shared interests.”
The invitation faced domestic backlash in Canada. Sikh groups, including the World Sikh Organization, called it a “betrayal,” citing the Nijjar case’s unresolved status. Liberal MP Sukh Dhaliwal and NDP MP Heather McPherson criticized the move, arguing it prioritizes “profit over people.” However, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and former minister Ujjal Dosanjh supported the decision, emphasizing trade and strategic cooperation. Reports suggest Carney consulted G7 allies, who pushed for India’s inclusion due to its global influence, overcoming initial hesitancy amid domestic political risks.
Opportunities for a Reset
Modi’s visit, his first to Canada since 2015, offers a chance to stabilize ties through high-level dialogue. Key opportunities include:
- Economic Cooperation: Bilateral trade reached $9 billion in 2023, with Canadian pension funds investing $55 billion in India. Canada is a top destination for Indian students (over 400,000 annually) and hosts a 2-million-strong Indian diaspora. A May 2025 call between Foreign Ministers Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Anita Anand focused on deepening economic ties, with Canada seeking to diversify trade away from the U.S. Restoring trade talks, paused since 2023, could boost mutual prosperity.
- Geopolitical Alignment: As democracies, India and Canada share interests in climate, trade, and supply chain resilience. Former Indian envoy Ajay Bisaria noted the G7 provides Modi a platform to discuss global commons and advocate for action against Pakistan, blamed for a recent attack in Kashmir. The summit allows India to present its concerns without China or Pakistan present, strengthening its case.
- Law Enforcement Dialogue: Carney revealed Modi agreed to a “law enforcement dialogue,” potentially addressing the Nijjar investigation and India’s concerns about Khalistani activities. While Anand stressed the investigation’s independence, this commitment suggests a framework for managing disputes, as proposed by former Canadian diplomat David Mckinnon.
Analysts like Meera Shankar see the visit as a “beginning of a reset,” given the volatile global context. Dosanjh argued for multi-track engagement, separating legal disputes from trade and cultural ties, citing the Air India bombing of 1985 as a shared Canadian wound.
Unresolved Issues and Challenges
Despite the diplomatic opening, significant hurdles remain:
- Nijjar Investigation: The unresolved case is a major sticking point. Canada’s allegations, bolstered by a U.S. indictment linking Indian officials to a similar plot, contrast with India’s denials. Carney avoided commenting on Modi’s involvement, citing ongoing legal proceedings, but Sikh groups demand accountability. Without a “mutually agreeable off-ramp,” as Mckinnon suggested, tensions may persist.
- Khalistan Movement: India’s demand for stricter Canadian action against Khalistani activists clashes with Canada’s free speech protections. Recent incidents, like the attack on journalist Mocha Bezirgan in Vancouver, highlight ongoing extremism concerns. Dosanjh accused some Canadian politicians of ignoring Pakistan’s historical role in fueling Khalistan, complicating India’s trust.
- Domestic Backlash: Protests by Sikh separatists are expected during Modi’s visit, risking diplomatic embarrassment. Carney’s Liberal Party faces internal dissent, with MPs like Dhaliwal voicing constituent concerns. Balancing Sikh community sentiments with strategic ties to India is a political tightrope.
- Geopolitical Sensitivities: India’s push to isolate Pakistan at the G7 may strain relations with Canada, which seeks balanced regional engagement. Anand’s emphasis on the “rule of law” suggests Canada won’t compromise on the Nijjar case, potentially limiting progress.
Public Sentiment and Expert Perspectives
Posts on X reflect polarized views. Pro-India users like @SinghPramod2784 and @MeghUpdates celebrated the invitation as a diplomatic win, claiming G7 pressure forced Canada’s hand. Critics like @AbhishBanerj mocked Canada’s “aukat” (stature), while @MichaelKugelman noted India’s global significance likely drove the invite over a genuine détente. Indian media, like The Hindu, urged restoring diplomatic posts and trade talks, while Canadian outlets like CBC highlighted domestic opposition.
Experts are cautiously optimistic. Fen Hampson called the invitation a “positive signal,” noting Modi’s immediate acceptance. Bisaria emphasized the summit’s strategic value for India, while Shankar highlighted mutual gains in a volatile world. However, Mckinnon cautioned that normalization is premature without resolving the Nijjar and Khalistan disputes.
Critical Analysis: Prospects for a Reset
The G7 visit offers a diplomatic window, but a full reset is unlikely without addressing core grievances. Carney’s invitation, possibly spurred by G7 allies, reflects pragmatic recognition of India’s economic and geopolitical weight. Modi’s acceptance signals willingness to engage, but India’s dismissal of Canada’s allegations and Canada’s insistence on legal accountability create a stalemate. The law enforcement dialogue is a step forward, but its scope—whether it includes Nijjar or focuses solely on Khalistani extremism—remains unclear.
Economic and people-to-people ties provide a strong incentive for reconciliation. Canada’s diaspora and investment links with India, coupled with India’s need for diversified trade partners, favor cooperation. However, domestic politics in both nations complicate progress. Modi faces pressure to project strength against separatism, while Carney navigates Sikh community sensitivities and Liberal Party divisions.
The summit’s success hinges on managing expectations. A bilateral meeting could yield symbolic gestures, like reinstating diplomats or resuming trade talks, but resolving the Nijjar case or Khalistan issue requires sustained, discreet negotiations. External factors, like India’s tensions with Pakistan or Canada’s G7 priorities (e.g., Ukraine, digital transition), may dilute focus on bilateral issues.
Modi’s G7 visit is a strategic opportunity to reset India-Canada ties, leveraging shared democratic values and economic interests. While the Nijjar investigation and Khalistan tensions pose challenges, the law enforcement dialogue and economic focus offer pathways for progress. Carney’s pragmatic invitation and Modi’s eager acceptance suggest mutual intent to move beyond recent lows, but a full thaw requires delicate handling of legal and political sensitivities. The summit may open doors, but sustained back-channel talks will determine if both nations can step through them.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available information and is intended solely for informational purposes.
Source: News reports and official statements, June 2025.
