The ongoing war between Israel and Iran, sparked by Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” on June 13, 2025, has escalated into what Israeli military officials now describe as a “many months” conflict. Initially projected to conclude within weeks, the campaign faces challenges as Iran’s relentless missile and drone attacks expose vulnerabilities in Israel’s air defenses. With significant damage reported and global powers drawn into the fray, the conflict’s duration and intensity show no signs of abating. Here’s a comprehensive analysis of the situation, its implications, and the factors driving this prolonged confrontation.
Table of Contents
A Shift from Quick Victory to Open-Ended War
Initial Optimism Fades
When Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, military officials estimated a swift resolution within two weeks. However, on June 21, 2025, the Israeli army, as reported by Yedioth Ahronoth, admitted the war could last “many months.” Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi described it as a “prolonged campaign” necessary to eliminate Iran’s strategic threat, urging Israelis to prepare for sustained conflict.
An “Open-Ended Confrontation”
Israeli officials now characterize the war as an “open-ended confrontation” with no clear end date. Iran’s daily salvos of over 470 ballistic missiles and 1,000 drones since June 13 have targeted key sites in Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Beersheba, overwhelming initial expectations. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are “constantly adjusting strategies” to counter Iran’s ability to evade advanced air defenses, signaling a shift to a long-term defensive posture.
Iran’s Missile Onslaught: Breaching Israel’s Defenses
Air Defense Vulnerabilities Exposed
Israel’s multi-layered air defense system, comprising the Arrow missile defense, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome, is supported by US Navy assets and the Jordanian Air Force. Yet, officials admit that up to 10% of Iran’s ballistic missiles evade interception, causing significant damage to military, intelligence, and civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, universities, and oil facilities.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Arrow system, critical for intercepting long-range missiles, is nearing depletion, with Israel potentially rationing interceptors within days. US stockpiles are also strained, with the Pentagon transferring munitions to Israel at the expense of its regional reserves. Intelligence estimates suggest Israel’s air defenses can sustain current attack levels for only 10–12 more days, raising concerns about long-term viability.
Iran’s Tactical Advantage
Iran’s ability to bypass Israel’s defenses stems from its advanced missile technology and strategic targeting. Posts on X highlight massive explosions in Tehran from Israeli strikes, but Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks have hit four impact sites in Israel, with sirens sounding nationwide for over 30 minutes—the longest continuous alert in the conflict. Iran’s use of hypersonic missiles, as claimed in some reports, and its sheer volume of projectiles have overwhelmed interception systems, forcing Israel to adapt under pressure.
US Involvement and Operation Midnight Hammer
US Strikes on Iran
On June 21, 2025, the US joined Israel in Operation Midnight Hammer, targeting Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with B-2 bombers and 14,000-kg bunker-buster bombs. President Donald Trump called the strikes a “spectacular military success,” claiming Iran’s enrichment facilities were “obliterated.” However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported limited damage, particularly at Fordow’s underground facility, and no radiation leaks.
Trump’s Regime Change Rhetoric
Trump’s hint at regime change—“If the current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, why wouldn’t there be a regime change?”—has escalated tensions, despite earlier US efforts to restart nuclear talks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s suggestion of assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei further fuels Iran’s resolve, with Khamenei vowing to “punish the Zionist enemy.”
Iran’s Retaliation and Regional Implications
Iran’s Response Strategy
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared no return to diplomacy until retaliation, citing the US and Israel’s “betrayal” during nuclear talks. Iran’s parliament endorsed closing the Strait of Hormuz, spiking oil prices by 4%, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned of strikes on US bases. Over 400 Iranians have been killed since June 13, compared to 24 Israeli deaths, intensifying Tehran’s domestic pressure to act decisively.
Missing Uranium Concerns
Reports of 400kg of near-bomb-grade uranium missing from Iran’s stockpiles have heightened fears of nuclear escalation. Some experts predict Iran may abandon the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and weaponize its program, leveraging its remaining uranium to produce a bomb within a year.
Russia’s Role and Global Reactions
Russia’s Mediation Efforts
Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned the US strikes as “groundless” and offered to mediate a ceasefire, but Trump rejected the proposal, prioritizing US-led diplomacy. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s support depends on “what Iran needs,” emphasizing diplomatic backing as a key form of aid. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi thanked Putin for standing on “the right side of history,” signaling closer Moscow-Tehran coordination.
International Condemnation
The UN, EU, China, and several Middle Eastern nations condemned the US and Israeli strikes. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for de-escalation, while Spain urged the EU to suspend its agreement with Israel over Gaza’s 56,000 deaths since October 2023. Russia and Iran plan to discuss “common threats,” potentially aligning against Western interests.
Challenges Ahead for Israel
Sustaining Air Defenses
With air defense reserves dwindling, Israel faces a critical juncture. The IDF’s claim of preparedness—“Challenging days still lie ahead”—contrasts with the reality of a strained Arrow system and limited US resupply capacity. Rationing interceptors could expose more civilian and military targets, eroding public confidence.
Economic and Social Strain
The war’s prolonged nature threatens Israel’s economy, with oil facility damage and disrupted infrastructure impacting daily life. Civilian casualties from Iranian strikes, though limited, fuel domestic pressure on Netanyahu’s government, already criticized for its Gaza campaign. The conflict’s open-ended timeline risks further isolating Israel diplomatically, especially as Spain pushes for EU sanctions.
What’s Next?
Iran’s Retaliation Options
Iran’s next moves will shape the conflict’s trajectory. Closing the Strait of Hormuz or striking US bases could trigger a wider war, while cyberattacks or proxy attacks via weakened allies like Hezbollah offer less escalatory paths. Iran’s nuclear ambitions, fueled by the strikes, could prompt a race for a bomb, altering regional power dynamics.
Israel’s Strategic Dilemma
Israel must balance offensive strikes with conserving air defense resources. Netanyahu’s push for US support, including more bunker-buster bombs, suggests continued aggression, but depleted defenses and international backlash may force a reassessment. A ceasefire, potentially mediated by Russia or China, remains unlikely without mutual concessions.
Global Stakes
The Israel-Iran war risks destabilizing the Middle East, disrupting global energy markets, and undermining nuclear non-proliferation. A prolonged conflict could draw in US allies like Jordan or Gulf states, while Russia and China’s alignment with Iran threatens a broader East-West divide. The war’s duration—now projected at “many months”—underscores the urgency of diplomatic intervention to prevent a catastrophic escalation.
Israel’s war with Iran, initially envisioned as a swift operation, has morphed into a protracted conflict with no clear end. Iran’s missile strikes, evading Israel’s faltering air defenses, have inflicted significant damage, while US involvement and Trump’s regime change rhetoric escalate the stakes. Russia’s mediation offers, though rebuffed, highlight its strategic role, but Iran’s retaliation plans and Israel’s strained defenses suggest months of uncertainty. As global powers watch, the conflict’s outcome will reshape the Middle East and beyond.
What do you think about the Israel-Iran war’s prolonged timeline? Can diplomacy halt the escalation, or is a wider conflict inevitable?
