On June 22, 2025, the United States launched a bold military strike on three Iranian nuclear sites—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—thrusting itself into the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. President Donald Trump called the operation a “very successful attack,” warning Tehran of severe consequences unless it halts its hostilities with Israel. The strikes, executed by B-2 Spirit stealth bombers using bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles, mark a pivotal escalation, raising fears of a broader regional war. With Iran vowing retaliation and global powers watching closely, the future of this conflict is uncertain. This blog outlines five plausible scenarios for how the Iran-Israel conflict, now with direct U.S. involvement, could unfold, exploring the risks, responses, and global implications.
Scenario 1: Iran Targets U.S. Bases in Retaliation
Iran may respond to the U.S. strikes by launching missile attacks on American military bases in the region, escalating the conflict into a direct U.S.-Iran confrontation. Iranian state media has declared that “every American citizen or military personnel in the region is now a target,” signaling Tehran’s intent to retaliate. Iran’s missile arsenal, capable of reaching U.S. bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, poses a significant threat to the 40,000 U.S. troops stationed across the Middle East.
The U.S. has heightened security at its regional bases, with the Pentagon placing forces on high alert. In the U.S., the New York Police Department has increased protection around religious, cultural, and diplomatic sites as a precaution. An Iranian strike on U.S. assets could prompt a massive American counterattack, potentially targeting Iran’s remaining military infrastructure or leadership. Such an escalation risks drawing in regional allies like Saudi Arabia or the UAE, transforming the conflict into a wider war. However, Iran’s weakened air defenses, battered by Israeli strikes, may limit its ability to sustain prolonged attacks, forcing it to rely on asymmetric tactics.
Scenario 2: Israel Preemptively Strikes Iran’s Revolutionary Guards
Israel, anticipating Iranian retaliation, may escalate its campaign by targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the backbone of Iran’s military power. The Israeli military has shifted to a state of “Essential Activity,” restricting public gatherings, educational activities, and non-essential workplaces, signaling preparations for a prolonged conflict. Foreign media reports suggest Israel is considering strikes on IRGC headquarters and training camps to cripple Iran’s ability to coordinate retaliatory attacks.
This scenario would aim to decapitate Iran’s military leadership, building on Israel’s June 2025 strikes that killed 11 senior generals, including Maj. Gen. Ali Shadmani. However, targeting the IRGC risks provoking a fierce Iranian response, potentially including missile barrages on Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa, which have already suffered damage from Iranian strikes. Israel’s missile defense systems, strained by ongoing attacks, may struggle to intercept all incoming threats, leading to significant civilian casualties. The U.S. could be drawn deeper into the conflict, providing air cover or refueling support for Israeli jets, further blurring the line between defensive and offensive operations.
Scenario 3: Iran Activates Proxies Against Israel
Iran may unleash its “Axis of Resistance”—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria—to strike Israel, avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S. Hezbollah’s leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, recently pledged “all forms of support” to Iran, claiming its nuclear program is peaceful. However, Iran’s proxies are weakened: Hezbollah is reeling from Israeli strikes that killed its leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, while Hamas and Syrian militias are depleted after years of fighting.
In this scenario, Hezbollah could launch rocket attacks from Lebanon, while Houthis resume strikes on Red Sea shipping or fire missiles at Israel. Iraqi militias might target U.S. bases, indirectly retaliating for American strikes. These actions would stretch Israel’s defenses and test U.S. resolve to protect its ally. However, the proxies’ diminished capabilities may limit their impact, and internal divisions could hinder coordinated attacks. A surge in proxy activity risks reigniting conflicts in Lebanon and Yemen, further destabilizing the region, but may fall short of delivering a decisive blow to Israel or the U.S.
Scenario 4: China and Russia Back Iran Diplomatically
China and Russia, wary of U.S. dominance in the Middle East, may call for restraint while quietly supporting Iran through diplomatic and economic channels. Chinese President Xi Jinping accused Trump of “pouring oil” on the conflict and urged Israel to cease hostilities, while Russia warned against U.S. military intervention, citing risks of a “Chernobyl-style catastrophe” if Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant is hit. Russian President Vladimir Putin has positioned himself as a potential mediator, reflecting Moscow’s concern over losing Iran, a key ally, if the regime collapses.
In this scenario, China and Russia could provide Iran with economic lifelines, such as oil purchases or financial aid, to offset sanctions and war losses. They might also push for a UN Security Council resolution condemning U.S. and Israeli actions, though a U.S. veto would likely block it. Diplomatic support could embolden Iran to continue its nuclear program in secret, rebuilding facilities like Fordow underground. However, neither China nor Russia is likely to risk direct military involvement, limiting their influence to rhetoric and trade. This scenario could prolong the conflict by giving Iran breathing room, but it risks alienating Western powers and escalating global tensions.
Scenario 5: Oil Crisis Triggered by Strait of Hormuz Closure
Iran may retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which 20% of global oil (approximately 20 million barrels daily) passes, causing a surge in oil prices. Iranian officials have threatened this move, which could involve mining the strait or attacking tankers. Oil prices have already climbed 5% to above $75 per barrel since the U.S. strikes, with analysts predicting prices could soar past $120 if the strait is blocked.
Alternative routes, like Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline (6 million barrels daily) or the UAE’s Fujairah pipeline, could divert some supply, but increased shipping costs and risks would still drive prices higher. A prolonged closure could trigger a global energy crisis, hitting economies dependent on Gulf oil, including China and India. The U.S., with its strategic petroleum reserve and domestic production, might mitigate domestic impacts but would face pressure to secure the strait militarily, potentially deploying naval forces to counter Iranian mines or attacks. This scenario risks pulling Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE into the conflict, as their economies depend on open shipping lanes, further regionalizing the war.
The Uncertain Path Ahead
Each scenario carries profound risks for Iran, Israel, the U.S., and the global community. A direct Iranian attack on U.S. bases could spiral into a full-scale war, while Israel’s targeting of the IRGC might provoke devastating missile strikes. Proxy activation could reignite conflicts in Lebanon and Yemen, and diplomatic backing from China and Russia may embolden Iran to rebuild its nuclear program. A Strait of Hormuz closure would disrupt global energy markets, drawing in Gulf states and straining economies worldwide. The human toll is already staggering, with over 400 deaths in Iran and 24 in Israel, and the potential for further escalation looms large.
The U.S.’s entry into the conflict, driven by Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, has closed diplomatic off-ramps for now. Israel’s campaign, backed by American firepower, aims to cripple Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but experts warn that even a successful strike on Fordow may only delay, not destroy, Tehran’s program. As Iran weighs its response and global powers scramble to contain the fallout, the Middle East stands at a crossroads, with the specter of a wider war casting a long shadow.
Disclaimer: This blog is based on publicly available information and aims to provide an accessible overview of a complex issue. It does not reflect official statements or endorse any political stance.
Source: Information compiled from news reports, official statements, and expert analyses regarding the Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. involvement in June 2025.
