Voting for the assembly elections in Maharashtra will take place on November 20 and results will be announced on November 23.
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Maharashtra’s electorate, comprising 9.64 crore voters, will encounter an abundance of choices as they approach the polling booths on November 20. For the first time since the 2019 elections for the 288-member state assembly, voters will have the option of selecting from two national parties and four significant political formations, which include the two factions of Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Furthermore, various other parties cater to distinct groups, such as the Dalits and Ambedkarites.
Just over two years ago, the two most influential regional parties, Shiv Sena, established by Balasaheb Thackeray, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), under the leadership of the notable Maratha figure Sharad Pawar, experienced significant divisions. The resulting splinter groups, led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, were subsequently acknowledged as the official parties and were granted the privilege to utilize their respective party symbols.
Yet, five months ago, the people of Maharashtra delivered a verdict that enhanced Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray’s moral authority as the true inheritors of their respective parties.
What The Lok Sabha Results Indicate
If we were to translate the 2024 Lok Sabha seat distribution into assembly constituencies, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would be in the lead with 83 seats, followed by Congress with 63 seats. The Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) holds 56 seats, while the rival faction of Shiv Sena has 38. Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has secured 32 seats, with his nephew Ajit managing only six.
Nevertheless, the dynamics of state elections are markedly different from those observed in the Lok Sabha. The issues at stake vary, as does the approach of the electorate. For example, during the summer, one significant factor influencing voters was the Opposition’s allegation that the BJP-led Modi government aimed for a majority exceeding 400 seats to amend the Constitution. This apprehension alone galvanized opposition votes against the ruling government.
As the electoral contest unfolds, two principal coalitions emerge: Mahayuti, spearheaded by the BJP along with the two official factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP, and the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes Congress and the other two factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP. The involvement of senior Pawar introduces a notable distinction in this political landscape.
Elections in Maharashtra : The Pawar Magic
The astute octogenarian politician showcased his adeptness in creating an unexpected coalition, uniting Shiv Sena and Congress to share governance. Shiv Sena, historically a staunch Hindutva party and one of the BJP’s longest-standing allies, made this strategic shift for political motivations.
Can Sharad Pawar once again perform a remarkable feat? The forthcoming elections are expected to shed light on the future and leadership of the NCP, particularly as his protégé, Ajit Pawar, has opted to serve as a junior partner in the Shinde administration. Senior Pawar’s daughter, Supriya Sule, is awaiting a smooth transition of leadership. The results on November 23 will shape the path forward.
Both the Mahayuti and the MVA are confronted with the challenging choice of whether to nominate a chief ministerial candidate or to engage the electorate with an element of intrigue regarding who that candidate may be.
Nevertheless, the BJP-led coalition possesses a notable advantage. Retaining control over Haryana provides the BJP with a significant psychological upper hand against its opponents. In contrast, the Congress, having faced a humiliating defeat in Haryana, should derive important lessons and concentrate on leveraging the anti-incumbency sentiment directed at the Shinde government.
A Complex Landscape Elections in Maharashtra
In a politically fragmented environment, voters are tasked with choosing representatives who can reflect the pride of Maharashtrians while advancing the industrious and prosperous trajectory of the state.
The situation is further complicated by significant challenges in the agricultural sector, characterized by alarming rates of farmer suicides and regions susceptible to drought, which pose ongoing difficulties for policymakers. Additionally, there is a persistent demand for reservation for the Maratha community, supported by an active campaign. The implications of this demand for other communities that benefit from affirmative action remain uncertain.
This context is contrasted by welfare initiatives introduced by the Mahayuti government, including the Ladki Bahin Yojna, which offers financial assistance to families with daughters. A comparable program in Madhya Pradesh successfully influenced voter preferences towards the BJP.
Currently, the state is governed by the Mahayuti coalition, led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. The ruling alliance comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde, and NCP-Ajit Pawar, overseeing a total of 288 seats in Maharashtra.
