Oscars 2025 Predictions: Expected Winners and Deserving Contenders at the 97th Academy Awards!
As the 2025 Academy Awards approach, the Best Picture race has come down to two powerhouse contenders: Sean Baker’s indie sensation Anora and Edward Berger’s gripping Vatican thriller Conclave.
The 2025 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 2, airing live on ABC and streaming live on Hulu beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)
Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”)
Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”)
Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”)
PREDICTED WINNER (based on public opinion): Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”)
Chalamet delivers an exceptional portrayal of the young Bob Dylan, showcasing a flawless blend of acting, singing, guitar playing, and harmonica performance.
Just a week ago, after witnessing Adrien Brody’s success with numerous critics’ awards for his role in “The Brutalist,” he achieved a significant milestone by winning a prestigious accolade from his peers at the Screen Actors Guild. This recognition highlights his ability to transcend mere impersonation, delivering a raw and unvarnished portrayal that encapsulates the petulant arrogance of a future Nobel Prize laureate. His music, lyrics, and distinctive vocal rasp have played a pivotal role in shaping a generation. Timothée Chalamet’s captivating performance captures Bob Dylan in the thrilling process of self-invention, portraying him as a wandering troubadour and poet, perpetually creating and ever elusive.
Should Chalamet, who was previously nominated in the same category for “Call Me By Your Name” in 2017, secure the Oscar on Sunday night, he would make history as the youngest recipient of the best actor award at the age of 29, surpassing Brody’s record by nine months.
PREDICTION: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)
Regrettably for Chalamet, the frontrunner remains Brody, the youngest actor to have ever won the best actor Oscar. He achieved this remarkable feat just one month shy of his 30th birthday for his role as Władysław Szpilman in “The Pianist,” a Polish Jew who endured the Nazi occupation of Warsaw.
Best actress in a leading role
Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”)
Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”)
Mikey Madison (“Anora”)
Demi Moore (“The Substance”)
Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”)
SHOULD WIN: Mikey Madison (“Anora”)
WILL WIN: Demi Moore (“The Substance”)
Best actor in a supporting role
Yura Borisov (“Anora”)
Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)
Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”)
Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”)
Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)
SHOULD WIN: Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)
WILL WIN: Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)
Best actress in a supporting role
Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”)
Ariana Grande (“Wicked”)
Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”)
Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”)
Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)
SHOULD WIN: Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”)
WILL WIN: Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)
Best Picture
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
SHOULD WIN: “The Brutalist”
WILL WIN: “Conclave” … in a squeaker victory over “Anora”
I anticipate a closely contested outcome on Oscar night, with the advocates of “Conclave” narrowly surpassing the supporters of “Anora.” Both films have a legitimate chance of winning. “Anora” has recently gained momentum by securing victories at the prominent producers’ and directors’ guilds, and Sean Baker’s tribute to sex workers has certainly resonated with the younger audience. However, traditional voters, who may be put off by the explicit content in “Anora,” tend to favor Edward Berger’s more conventional style in “Conclave.” This film has already triumphed at the BAFTAs, which share a significant overlap with the American Academy, and just last week it received the best ensemble cast award from the Screen Actors Guild, the largest voting body at the Oscars. It is a toss-up, leaving us all in suspense for the main event.
By any standard of exceptional talent and ambition, director Brady Corbet’s deeply personal epic exploring the immigrant experience in America stands out as the finest film of the year. While “Anora” and “Conclave” are close contenders, the film excels in its technical execution, from cinematography to musical score. Corbet’s direction, along with the performances by Brody, Jones, and Guy Peace, establishes a new benchmark in the industry. A notable criticism is the film’s lengthy runtime of three hours and 35 minutes. However, similar to “Oppenheimer,” this duration should not detract from its merit, despite the increasing prevalence of short attention spans.
Brody’s career triumph is further elevated by his portrayal of László Tóth in “The Brutalist,” a Hungarian-born Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor who arrives in America filled with both hope and trepidation. Brody’s performance is an emotional tour de force, showcasing the depth and intensity that only he can bring to this defining role.
The Oscar season has a unique ability to transform otherwise rational individuals into amateur statisticians, astrologers, and casual Hollywood forecasters. We analyze guild awards with the same intensity as one might interpret tea leaves, engage in discussions about anonymous ballots as if deciphering an ancient text, and meticulously examine every campaign event, searching for the moment when a frontrunner falters or, equally exhilarating, when an underdog begins to gain traction. This process is a blend of mathematics and mythology, and for the 2025 Academy Awards, the narrative is particularly compelling: a fierce competition between two distinctly different films, each resonating with different aspects of Academy preferences.
On one hand, we have “Anora,” a micro-budget Palme d’Or winner directed by Sean Baker, which tells the story of a Brooklyn stripper grappling with the absurd intersections of sex, power, and capitalism. It embodies the essence of independent cinema—raw, unrefined, and profoundly American. Conversely, there is Edward Berger’s “Conclave,” a gripping Vatican thriller that explores a clash of ideologies and secrets within the confines of the Sistine Chapel.
The paths to the Dolby Theatre for these two films have diverged in ways that render predicting a winner a challenging endeavor. “Anora” has triumphed at the Critics Choice Awards, the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild, and the Writers Guild—each victory serving as a significant indicator. However, “Conclave,” with its distinguished European background, dominated the BAFTAs and notably secured the SAG Ensemble award, a key indicator of mainstream appeal. Additionally, the Academy’s preferential voting system complicates matters, as it has historically disrupted the trajectories of several Oscar frontrunners. This year’s contest will likely depend on which film garners broader appreciation rather than fervent admiration. While the PGA win hints at momentum for “Anora,” the international support for “Conclave” could potentially shift the outcome in its favor.
As Anora and Conclave engage in their fierce competition, The Brutalist quietly observes from the sidelines. This film, directed by Brady Corbet, is a contemplative post-war narrative that chronicles the life of a Holocaust survivor who becomes an architect over several decades. It has garnered ten nominations, including Best Director and Best Actor for Adrien Brody. Two decades after his groundbreaking victory for The Pianist, Brody finds himself in a strong position to achieve a similar honor once again. However, he faces formidable competition from Timothée Chalamet, who portrays a young Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown with remarkable finesse, captivating voters through his singing, guitar playing, and transformative performance. While Brody has dominated the awards season, Chalamet’s recent SAG win presents a compelling alternative. Should he triumph, he would poetically usurp Brody’s record as the youngest Best Actor in Oscar history.
In the Best Actress category, a generational clash unfolds, perfectly suited for the drama of awards season. At 62, veteran actress Demi Moore finally receives her first Oscar nomination, having undergone a remarkable transformation in The Substance — a bold body-horror satire that transforms the industry’s fears about aging into a strikingly grotesque nightmare. In contrast, Mikey Madison has gained significant recognition following her Cannes success, earning her first nomination for her raw and revelatory performance in Anora. The Academy now faces a choice: will they honor Moore’s enduring resilience over the years, or will they recognize Madison as a symbol of the future?
Further along the ballot, a significant competition unfolds in the writing categories. Conclave has established itself as a frontrunner in Adapted Screenplay, having secured the BAFTA, Critics Choice, and USC Scripter awards for its meticulously crafted adaptation of Robert Harris’s novel. However, Nickel Boys, adapted from Colson Whitehead’s acclaimed Pulitzer Prize-winning work, has garnered substantial backing, particularly following its victory at the Writers Guild Awards. In the Original Screenplay category, Anora, A Real Pain, and The Substance have each claimed important precursors, resulting in a highly competitive three-way race, although the odds appear to favor the Best Picture frontrunner in this instance. Additionally, there is the notable entry of Emilia Pérez—Jacques Audiard’s divisive, operatic musical centered on cartel themes, which briefly seemed destined to replicate the success of Everything Everywhere All At Once. It emerged from Cannes with the Jury Prize and accolades for its lead actress, leading to an impressive thirteen nominations, but then faced significant controversy. A backlash regarding star Karla Sofía Gascón’s social media history and doubts concerning the film’s authenticity and representation of its Mexican context have considerably undermined its previously assured position. Nevertheless, with Zoe Saldaña likely securing a nomination for Supporting Actress and “El Mal” remaining a strong contender for Best Song, it continues to be a wildcard in this awards season.
As the event approaches, the competition remains frustratingly uncertain, despite a series of self-inflicted setbacks that have hindered numerous campaigns in a manner reminiscent of Conclave’s approach. Will the Academy choose to honor Anora, thereby elevating Sean Baker as the new king of independent cinema? Will Conclave emerge as a more conventional alternative? Can Brody successfully counter Chalamet? In a season characterized by generational contrasts—Moore versus Madison, Brody versus Chalamet, indie versus prestige—one final question persists: does the Academy prefer to honor the past or to embrace the future?
